A turbulent year lies ahead for Africa, as conflicts and political instability threaten to overshadow the continent's progress.
A Tale of Two Africas
As we enter the latter half of the 21st century, Africa finds itself at a crossroads. On one hand, there are encouraging signs of democratic progress and economic growth. On the other, a dark cloud looms over the continent, with coups, disputed elections, and ongoing conflicts casting a long shadow.
Elections and Their Aftermath
In 2025, a total of 17 African countries held elections, from North to South, and even the island nations were not exempt. However, the outcomes of these elections were not without controversy.
Take Cameroon, for instance, where President Paul Biya secured an eighth term in office, raising eyebrows and concerns about the longevity of his rule. Opposition figures allege widespread rigging, and one prominent leader even died in police custody after the disputed elections.
Similarly, Tanzania's elections were marred by violence and internet shutdowns, with citizens clashing with security forces. The Southern African Development Community's Electoral Observation Mission noted aggressive interrogation of their observers and concluded that voters' democratic will was suppressed in many areas.
But there were also positive examples. In neighboring Malawi, democratic processes largely held, with former president Peter Mutharika returning to power after a competitive election. This offers a glimmer of hope for democratic change in the region.
Coups and Unconstitutional Changes
Unfortunately, not all power transitions were peaceful. Late 2025 saw unconstitutional changes of government in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau. In Guinea-Bissau, a coup took place just days after elections, with the military declaring a new president and the incumbent fleeing to the Republic of Congo.
In Madagascar, widespread protests against the government led to an elite army unit intervening, resulting in the impeachment of President Andry Rajoelina. These events highlight chronic issues of power and governance, with a cycle of poor governance and military intervention seemingly repeating itself.
Ongoing Conflicts and Impasses
The year 2025 brought no resolution to the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Despite US-brokered agreements, fighting continues, with ordinary citizens bearing the brunt of the violence. The M23 rebels, backed by Rwanda, clash with Congolese and Burundian armies, and both countries accuse each other of violating the terms of the peace deals.
Similarly, the conflict in Sudan rages on, with little hope for a ceasefire in sight. The latest peace attempt, led by the Quad and other regional powers, was rejected by the Sudan Armed Forces due to the involvement of the United Arab Emirates.
US-Africa Relations: A Strained Partnership
In 2025, South Africa held the G20 presidency, hosting the first-ever summit in Africa. Despite focusing on important issues like industrialization, climate justice, and global inequality, the year was not without challenges. US President Donald Trump accused South Africa of failing to prevent a white genocide, leading to a boycott of the G20 Summit and a refusal to invite South Africa to future G20 events.
This strain in US-Africa relations poses risks to South Africa's economic development and could potentially weaken the US's influence on the continent. Nigeria, too, faces the prospect of strained relations with the US due to allegations of Christian persecution, which it has denied.
Looking Ahead: A Year of Uncertainty
As we move into 2026, the African Union's Summit in February will focus on sustainable water availability and sanitation systems. Additionally, 17 countries will hold elections, including South Sudan, which has faced significant delays in its presidential and legislative elections.
Furthermore, Botswana and Lesotho celebrate their 60th anniversaries of independence, marking their diamond jubilees.
The year ahead promises to be a pivotal one for Africa, with the potential for both progress and setbacks. Will the continent find a path towards stability and peace? Only time will tell.
